www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxl0_sUbRus

Quote of the week. “Nothing in life is to be feared. It is only to be understood.”– Marie Curie

Reforms become law. President Obama signed his long-envisioned health care reforms into law on March 23, a truly dark day for America and proof that we have long since turned the corner from being the land of the free.  Obama will sign the amendments to the bill into law on March 30. Most of the major changes will take effect after the next Presidential election, when health insurance will become compulsory for nearly all Americans. Those that will be excluded from this will be Native American’s, Inmates and those with religious objections. I think we are going to see a lot more with religious objections. After all, if there is one thing that politicians have taught us is that it all depends on your definition of the word “religious.” Right President Clinton? Of course, new taxes will help fund the reforms which means that nothing you hold sacred is safe from the government, because after all, any money that we get to keep after a hard days work is a privilege from the state and federal governments, not a God given right.^1,2,3

But let’s talk about some good news. Home sales still underwhelming. I seam to remember a campaign slogan, it is the economy stupid.  Anyway, existing home sales dipped 0.6% for February while new home sales slipped 2.2% to another all-time low (although data only goes back to 1964). So were there any positives in the new Commerce Department report? Yes. The median sale price of new homes was about 5% above where it was a year ago.⁴

A gain in durable goods orders. The 0.5% rise in February was accompanied by news that durable goods inventories increased by 0.3%, the best such gain since December 2008.⁵

USDI surges north. When the U.S. Dollar Index is up 1.10% for the week (and 4.82% for the month), what happens with gold and oil? Well, gold and oil prices respectively fell 0.30% and 1.20% last week, with crude futures at exactly $80.00 per barrel at Friday’s close on the NYMEX.⁶

S&P 500 climbs 5.62% in 4 weeks. Stocks had another fine week from March 22-26, with the NASDAQ advancing 0.87%, the Dow 1.01% and the S&P 500 0.58% as part of a great 4-week run.⁷

Now the riddle of the week:

Last week’s riddle: Is there a number made of eleven tens of thousands, eleven thousands, eleven hundreds and eleven units? If so, what is it??

The answer: Yes -- the number is 122,111. 110,000 + 11,000 + 1,100 + 11 = 122,111

This week’s riddle. Two-and-a-half artists spend two-and-a-half hours painting two-and-a-half models on two-and-a-half canvases. How many artists would be necessary to paint 24 models on 24 canvases in 20 hours?

Presented by Pete Mitchell

www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Y1-hNPToBk

Quote of the week. “A person will be just about as happy as they make up their minds to be.”– Abraham Lincoln

Let’s kick of this update with Jobs information. 9.7% and holding. The Labor Department reported only 36,000 net job losses last month, so the jobless rate was flat for February, unless you were one of the 36,000 that lost their job, then it was pretty close to 100%. Economists had widely assumed the unemployment rate would inch upward due to winter weather affecting construction and retail industries.¹ As I’ve been saying for a while, we are not out of this, not even close.

There was good news this past week, there was a major boost in factory orders. They rose 1.7% in January, according to Commerce Department data. This is the best number in four months and follows a 1.5% advance for December.²

Pending home sales sink. What does the 7.6% fall for January indicate? It would seem to signal that the extended tax credits have become less magnetic to buyers. Let’s hope sales hold up this spring as the Fed ceases its purchases of mortgage-linked securities.³

Gold, copper, oil go higher. Copper prices rose 4.10% last week to $3.41/lb. Gold gained $16.50 last week (1.48%) to settle at $1,134.80 an ounce Friday. Crude futures rose $1.84 last week (2.31%) to $81.50 per barrel on the NYMEX at Friday’s close.⁴

March of the bulls? Wall Street was buoyed by the unchanged jobless rate on Friday, and the Dow climbed 122.06 to cap off its 2.33% weekly gain. The S&P 500 did even better: a 3.10% rise on the week to 1,138.70 at the closing bell on Friday. The NASDAQ? It advanced 3.94% on the week to 2,326.56.⁵

Now for the Riddle of the Week.

Last week’s riddle: Al gives Jane three boxes, one labeled DIAMONDS, one labeled PEARLS and one labeled DIAMONDS OR PEARLS. He tells her that all three boxes are labeled incorrectly and that one box contains diamonds, one pearls and the other emeralds. Al then tells Jane that if she can guess the contents of any box without opening it, she can keep the contents. How many boxes must Jane open to do this, and/or how many boxes can she keep?

The answer: Jane keeps everything and does not need to open any box. Since each box is labeled incorrectly, the box labeled “Diamonds or Pearls” must contain emeralds. Therefore the box labeled “Pearls” must contain diamonds, and the box labeled “Diamonds” must contain pearls.

Way to go to Mike Hathaway. I think this gives you win number 2!

This week’s riddle is: What should the last entry be in the following sequence of numbers … 9|18, 8|46, 7|94, 6|63, 5|52, 4|__?

I think this riddle is worth 2 unrestricted movie passes at any Regal theater. Leave your answer on the blog below and the first to get it correct, wins!

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

The month in brief. We saw a very pleasant 180º from January. New M&A action, nice corporate profits and the possibility of a rescue for Greece helped the market. By the end of February, 457 companies in the S&P 500 had issued 4Q earnings reports, with earnings per share about 154% above a year ago.¹ The S&P 500 had its best February since 1998, rising to 1,104.49.²

Domestic economic health. Consumer spending increased, even though consumer confidence didn’t. Personal spending advanced by 0.5% in February, and the Commerce Department also noted a 0.7% gain in inflation-adjusted purchases of durable goods and a dip in the personal savings rate to October 2008 levels. It suggested consumers were shopping enthusiastically.³ Yet consumer confidence indices went south: the Reuters/University of Michigan index went from 74.4 to 73.6 and the Conference Board barometer went from 46.0 from 55.9.⁴

How about the manufacturing and service sectors? The February data showed more growth. ISM’s manufacturing index came in at 56.5, and its service sector index read 53.0 (up from 50.5 in January.)^5,6

As for consumer and producer prices, something really notable happened: core CPI fell by 0.1% in January. It was the first monthly decline since 1982. Overall CPI rose 0.2% for January. PPI rose 1.4% in January, 0.3% factoring out food and energy costs.⁷

In Washington, it appeared to be reconciliation or nothing when it came to health care reform. (Since 1980, reconciliation has been used 22 times in Congress and succeeded 19 times, one of those results being the Bush administration tax cuts.)⁸ Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) introduced a jobs bill that would exempt employers from payroll taxes on new hires for the rest of 2010. Its fate was uncertain in the House.⁹

In February, the Federal Reserve took a small but notable step away from the emergency tactics put in place during the recession. It unexpectedly raised the discount rate from 0.50% to 0.75% – a little move that luckily didn’t send a big shock wave through the stock market.¹⁰

Global economic health. Would the Eurozone ride to the rescue of Greece? At the close of the month, it formally asked Greece for a plan to control its debt. Meanwhile, some economists speculated that the nation would be bailed out by some kind of unprecedented EU action. The respected Markit Economics PMI survey showed manufacturing increasing in Europe at the fastest rate in over two years; Eurozone joblessness also ticked down 0.1% to 9.9% in February.¹¹

Japan’s jobless rate was 4.9% in February, down from 5.1% a month earlier. Its GDP, which had been flat in 3Q 2009, came in at +1.1% for 4Q 2009. New data showed that China’s economy grew by 8.7% in 2009. Impressive? Certainly. Yet look at Taiwan: we learned last month that its economy was growing at an annualized rate of 18.0% during 4Q 2009.^12,13,14

World financial markets. It was truly a mixed bag last month – some indices had great gains, others big losses. Some gains in the Asia-Pacific region: Shanghai Composite, +2.10%; Hang Seng, +2.42%; Australia All Ordinaries, +1.18%; Sensex, +0.44%. Losses in that region: South Korea’s Kospi, -0.49%; Nikkei 225, -0.71%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 gained 3.20% while the DAX and CAC 40 respectively declined -0.18% and -0.82%. Russia’s always volatile RTSI was -4.51%. The best-performing and worst-performing indices of the month were the benchmark indices of Mexico (+4.09%) and Turkey (-9.05%). The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined by 0.27% in February, while the MSCI World Index gained 1.77%.^2,15

Commodities markets. The broad commodities market staged a rebound last month – and the dollar kept strengthening. The U.S. Dollar Index gained another 1.12% in February to go +3.20% on the year. On the NYMEX, the big mover was oil, which had its finest month since May 2009, advancing 9.29%to erase some severe January losses. Other fuels did well last month: RBOB gasoline futures gained 8.64% and diesel fuel gained 8.00%.²

In metals, copper shot up another 7.58%. Other metals logged nice gains in February: gold rose 3.31%, silver 1.91%, platinum 2.25% and palladium 5.11%.²

It was winter, and when it came to crops, there was volatility. Pork bellies performed better than any other notable commodity in February, posting a 12.02% gain. Other commodities had banner months: soybean oil, +9.82%; wheat, +9.55%; copper, +7.58%. Sugar futures cratered, dropping 21.07% on the month. Orange juice was +5.51% last month and +11.27% through the first sixth of 2010.²

Housing & interest rates. Snow or no snow, the January numbers weren’t pretty. Existing home sales fell 7.2% from the previous month – on the bright side, they were 11.5% above January 2009 figures.¹⁶ New home sales dropped 11.2% to a record low adjusted annualized sales rate of 309,000 units – and that was a 6.9% descent from year-ago levels.¹⁷

We all knew mortgage rates would rise; it was just a question of when. Last month turned out to be “when”. By the end of February, rates on 30-year FRMs averaged 5.05%. As for averages on other kinds of mortgages, the percentages were as follows: 15-year FRMs were averaging 4.40%, rates on 5-year hybrid ARMs were averaging 4.16% and rates on 1-year ARMs averaged 4.15%.¹⁸

Oh yes, Fannie Mae asked for $15.3 billion more from the Treasury to keep its net worth in the plus column. It also announced plans to buy up as many as 200,000 delinquent home loans out of mortgage-backed security trusts in March.^19,20

Major indexes. Stocks made up a lot of ground last month. It was not only the S&P 500’s best February in 12 years, but also the NASDAQ’s best February since 2000. At the end of February, the real yield on the 10-year TIPS was at 1.48% – right where it was at the end of 2009.^2,21

March outlook. We had some really nice signals at the start of the month – consumer spending increasing by the biggest monthly amount since mid-2008, a mid-50s ISM manufacturing index reading, and some strong M&A activity, all welcome after some very poor numbers concerning housing and consumer confidence in preceding days. The market ultimately decided to pay attention to mergers and earnings in February and take some of its collective mind off economic challenges. Will that trend continue this month? The markets have weathered the sovereign debt crisis nicely, and seem resilient enough to handle all but the biggest geopolitical shocks. Worth noting: at the start of March, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 had each crested their 50-day moving averages.²²

The major economic releases for the balance of March: January factory orders and pending home sales (3/4), February’s jobless data (3/5), January wholesale inventories (3/10), February retail sales, January business inventories and the University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment index (3/12), February industrial production (3/15), February housing starts and building permits (3/16), February PPI (3/17), February CPI and the Conference Board’s February leading indicators (3/18), February existing home sales (3/23), February new home sales and durable goods orders (3/24), February consumer spending (3/29), the Conference Board’s February consumer confidence survey and the Case-Shiller home price index for January (3/30), and February factory orders (3/31).

Riddle of the month. A rope ladder hangs over the side of a docked ship and dips into the water. The rungs are 15.75″apart, all equally distanced. At low tide, two of the ladder’s rungs are underwater. At high tide, which is exactly 3.5′above low tide, how many rungs will be underwater?

Contact my office or see next month’s Update for the answer.

Why emerging market equities have the world’s attention.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXlXhPNJ9ZE

Brazil. Russia. India. China. These four nations have some of the fastest-growing economies on earth and are becoming drivers in the world economy. In the coming decades, they may command as much attention as the U.S., Japan and other “heavy hitters” … or more.

The future aside, we know one thing about the BRIC nations and other emerging markets: collectively, stocks in these countries have outperformed U.S. stocks for the last 20 years.

During this past decade alone, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index brought a total return of 102.4% while the S&P 500 posted a total return of -10.0% (-24.1% before dividends). Across the 1990s, the S&P 500 produced a total return of 432.0% -- pretty impressive. Yet the MSCI Emerging Markets index posted a total return of 2408.6% for that decade.^1,2

Now there is tremendous volatility … but also great potential. If U.S. stocks soar or fall, emerging markets really feel the effect. We’ve seen them recoil in the first quarter of 2010. Yet short-term slumps aside, there are compelling arguments for investing in emerging market equities as PART of a diversified portfolio. Not the entire portfolio!

Look at last year’s returns. In 2009, the benchmark index in Brazil (the Bovespa) gained 82.66%. Russia’s RTS gained 128.62%. India’s Sensex 30 advanced 81.03% and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 79.98%.³

Now let’s look at the last decade. The Dow and the S&P 500 underperformed in the 2000s compared to previous decades. How did benchmark indices in the BRIC nations do?

Are you sitting down? Brazil’s Bovespa gained 301% across the 2000s. India’s stock market gained 249%. China’s Shanghai Composite was the laggard, only rising 72% over that stretch. Russia’s RTSI gained 863% in the past decade.³

So is it B-R-I-C, or B-R-I-M-C-K? Some economists would modify BRIC to BRIMCK, arguing that Mexico and South Korea belong in this collective powerhouse. The key market indices in Mexico and South Korea respectively advanced 44.87% and 49.65% last year.³ Or course I would argue that the sever instability of the Mexican government, which has a dramatic impact on their local market, is enough to keep it out of any serious investor’s portfolio.

So is this the (corporate) opportunity of a lifetime? Wall Street bulls see wisdom in giving more and more weight to the BRICs in portfolios. They draw a line between the impressive, sustained growth of these nations to higher returns and rising demand for capital. They look at these nations and see a rapidly growing middle class and upper middle class and a corresponding rise in spending … translating to a momentous opportunity for global companies who leap into the right place at the right time … translating to great corporate profits down the line.

Of course, this vision assumes that the BRIC nations will a) keep economic policies in place that drive growth, b) avoid political and social upheaval, and c) escape the worst of global economic crises. Remember, in my opinion, what hurts our economy will hurt them 10x as hard when it reaches there.

So is there a new alliance? A decade ago, “BRIC” was simply Wall Street slang – a term coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill. Today, the BRIC nations appear to be heading toward some form of coalition. In recognition of their power, BRIC leaders have scheduled annual economic summits – the first one was in Russia in 2009, the 2010 summit is in Brazil. The presidents and prime ministers of these countries entered into dialogue to determine how their economies can work together and maintain their fantastic growth.

In sum, the BRIC nations are responsible for about 15% of global GDP, and about 40% of the gold and hard currency reserves on earth are in their possession.⁴

So, does the BRIC demand your attention? Some financial consultants think that any well-diversified portfolio should have a toe (or a foot or a leg) in emerging markets – the gains of recent years are simply too spectacular to ignore. Others counter with the argument that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and cite the remarkable volatility that can affect the stock markets of these nations.

If you are interested in learning more, give me a call or shoot me an email and I’ll be glad to sit down and see what makes sense for you.

Citations.

¹ realclearmarkets.com/blog/Omnivest_1-4-10.pdf [1/4/10]

² cnbc.com/id/34645043 [12/31/09]

³ cnbc.com/id/34643111 [12/31/09]

⁴ nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/europe/17bric.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print [6/17/09]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5-TxwTyErQ

Quote of the week. “Reputation is what other people know about you. Honor is what you know about yourself.”– Lois McMaster Bujold

4Q GDP: 5.7%: That is the preliminary reading from the Commerce Department, and that is the best reading since 3Q 2003. Economists pointed out that much of the increase reflected companies rebuilding their inventories rather than personal spending.¹

Consumers think positive. The final University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index for January improved 1.6 points to 74.4. Economists polled by Briefing.com felt it would come in at 73.0.²

New concerns about home sales. Both new and existing home sales retreated markedly in December with the threat of federal tax credits being pulled. Existing home sales fell by 16.7% in that month while new home sales slipped 7.6%. In annual terms, residential resales for 2009 were about 5% higher than 2008 totals. Just 373,000 new single-family homes were sold in 2009, the fewest since the government began tracking sales stats in 1963.^3,4

A $5K hiring rebate? Last week, President Obama pitched the idea of giving companies of all sizes a $5,000 credit to offset payroll taxes for each new worker, up to a $500,000 ceiling. Net new hires (increasing employee hours) and salary increases could also make companies eligible. A proposal to enact the plan is now in the Senate.⁵

Dollar hits highest level since August. The buck went on an intraday climb to 90.92 yen and the euro traded below $1.39. The new GDP report helped.⁶

So long to a subpar month. Stocks retreated in the last week of January, with the Dow ending the month at 10,067.33, the NASDAQ at 2,147.35 and the S&P 500 at 1,073.87.⁷

(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 1/29/10)^7,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be

 invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. A plastic bottle filled with cola weighs one liter. What do you need to add to it to make it weigh less than two ounces?

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: A glass of water has an ice cube in it. If the ice cube fully melts, will the water level increase, decrease or remain the same?

Last week’s riddle answer: The water level will stay the same as the ice cube just displaces its weight.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Citations.

1 pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2010/01/us-economy-expands-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years.html [1/29/10]

2 money.cnn.com/2010/01/29/markets/markets_newyork/ [1/29/10]

3 money.cnn.com/2010/01/27/real_estate/new_home_sales/ [1/27/10]

4 nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/economy/30charts.html [1/29/10]

5 time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1957663,00.html?xid=rss-topstories [1/29/10]

6 cnbc.com/id/35136215/ [1/29/10]

7 cnbc.com/id/35017549 [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F29%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F29%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F29%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [1/29/10]

8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=1%2F28%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [1/29/10]

9 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [1/29/10]

9 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [1/29/10]

10 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]