.

4Q GDP: +3.2%
The preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis certainly beats the +2.6% mark from 3Q 2010. A deeper look into the BEA report reveals both personal consumption and nonresidential fixed investment improving by a healthy 4.4% last quarter; inventory accumulation slowed as well.¹

Huge Jump In New Home Sales

HUGE JUMP IN NEW HOME SALES
The pace of new home sales improved by 17.5% last month, according to the Census Bureau. In year-over-year terms, sales were down 7.6% while sale prices were 9.1% better. For the record, fewer new homes were built in 2010 than in any year since the government started keeping records in 1963. In other housing news, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales were up for the fifth time in the last six months in December (+2.0%), and Freddie Mac reported that the average interest rate on a 30-year conventional mortgage has risen to 4.80%.^2,3

DISSIMILAR FINDINGS FROM CONFIDENCE POLLS
While the Conference Board’s January poll showed U.S. consumer confidence at an 8-month peak (60.6), the final January Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed a slight decline to 74.2 from 74.5 in December.^4,5

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DOWN 2.5%
There was a silver lining in the Commerce Department’s December report: with aircraft orders factored out, durable goods orders were up 0.5% last month.⁶

FEARS, EARNINGS REPORTS STAGGER STOCKS
Unrest in Egypt (and subpar 4Q results from Ford, Amazon and Microsoft) led to a lot of selling Friday and took the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ lower for the week. The Dow’s eight-week winning streak was snapped; it did top 12,000 in intraday trading Friday. Weekly performances were as follows: DJIA, -0.41% to 11,823.70; S&P 500, -0.55% to 1,276.34; NASDAQ, -0.10% to 2,686.89. The CBOE VIX gained 8.50% last week.⁷

THIS WEEK: Monday brings a new consumer spending report and earnings from ExxonMobil and Chrysler. Tuesday, we have the January ISM manufacturing report and earnings from BP, Pfizer, UPS and Broadcom. Wednesday we get 4Q results from Yum Brands, Visa and Mattel. Thursday brings new initial and continuing claims data, a new ISM service sector report, December factory orders data, and 4Q results from Merck, Sony and Unilever and Ben Bernanke speaking to the National Press Club. Friday, we have the January jobs report and Aetna’s 4Q earnings.

Last Week’s Riddle:

Last Week’s Answer:

4 Like This (Sorry Stephen, better luck on this one):

Riddle of the Week (Answer in the comments section below):

What nation has current and former capital cities whose names are anagrams of each other? (Hint: it is a major player in the world economy.)

What needs to happen in the labor market? Ideally, a swift rise in consumer demand for goods and services in 2011 spurs businesses to hire, with no need for another costly federal stimulus. About 125,000 people enter the U.S. labor force every month, so job creation needs to hit that level just to tread water in terms of employment–to-population ratio. Data from the Brookings Institution shows that 280,000 new positions emerged monthly at the peak of job creation in the 2000s. Back in 1994, the economy was creating an average of 321,000 new jobs a month.¹

As 2010 drew to a close, our economy wasn’t anywhere near that. According to the Labor Department, 71,000 new non-farm jobs were created in November and 103,000 new non-farm jobs in December. Last month, the government said that private payrolls grew by 113,000 (297,000 according to payroll services provider ADP). Yet the December report also indicated a 1.3 million month-over-month rise in the population of discouraged workers who had simply stopped seeking jobs.²

On December 7, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee that while we were seeing a “self-sustaining” economic recovery, the jobless rate would likely remain elevated through 2015 or 2016.³

Perhaps 2011 could be better than we expect. A Manpower Inc. survey of employers in December found that 73% foresaw no change in the pace of hiring at their firms for the first quarter of 2011. However, the survey did find that seasonally adjusted (read: net) hiring was projected to rise from 5% in the past quarter to 9% in 1Q 2011.⁴ That represents a significant jump in net hiring and suggests either the perception or reality of rising demand in some industries.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently reported a 3.4% year-over-year rise in disposable personal incomes for 3Q 2010, which would seem to promote a consumer spending increase. Federal Reserve data showed consumer credit card debt ticking back up by 0.6% in September and 1.7% in October after months of decreases; this is another potential sign of a rebound in consumer spending and consumer confidence.⁵

What needs to happen in real estate? Well, two key factors do seem to be in place to encourage a rebound. Interest rates on 30-year conventional home loans are still below 5%; compare that with 9.4% as recently as the early part of 1989. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index tells us that existing home prices dropped 29.6% between July 2006 and October 2010, and some analysts see them falling further.^6,7 But two cold, hard facts remain in the way of a recovery.

• You can’t buy a home if you don’t have a job. Unemployment and its cousin underemployment represent the biggest drag on the real estate market – thwarting purchases, reducing demand, and hastening delinquencies and foreclosures.

• You can’t readily sell your home if it is “underwater”. The latest CoreLogic Inc. data shows that 22.5% of U.S. homeowners owe more than their residences are worth.⁷

During 2009-2010, any sense of momentum or recovery seemed a product of government intervention. The homebuyer tax credit led to a spike in sales, then a reversal. Turning from the month-to-month “weather” of the real estate market to year-over-year numbers, you would think things couldn’t get any worse: according to the latest figures (November), existing home sales were down 27.9% year-over-year and new home sales down 21.2% from 12 months before.⁸

However, some of the “weather” bears studying; things did get sunnier during 2010 in some respects. Mortgage rates didn’t rocket north when the Fed ended its campaign to buy mortgage-backed securities last March. (The European debt crisis had an effect.) Existing home sales rose by 5.6% in November, and the rate of new home purchases also improved by 5.5%. Pending home sales, as tracked by the National Association of Realtors, were up a record 10.4% in October and up another 3.5% for November.^8,9

Ideally, 2011 brings some kind of sweet spot for the residential real estate sector where job creation ramps up while mortgage rates remain historically low for a few months. That could contribute nicely toward a recovery in the sector in 2012.