Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist
Robert Stein, CFA – Senior Economist
Date: 8/29/2011

Market turmoil and a cycle of shrill headlines and worrisome “breaking news” convinced many to evacuate the equity markets. That was a mistake. The odds of recession are low, but the stock market seems to have priced one in, anyway.

We use a capitalized profits model to value stocks, dividing corporate profits by the 10-year Treasury yield. We compare the current level of this index to that from each quarter for the past 60 years to estimate an average fair-value. Not only are 10-year yields low (2.2%), but corporate profits are growing strongly. As a result, and hold onto your hats, this top down model says that the fair-value for the Dow is currently 40,000.

However, we think the Treasury market is in a bubble. So, instead of a 2.2% yield, we use a more conservative discount rate of 5% for the 10-year Treasury. This generates a “fair value” of 18,500 on the Dow and 1,940 for the S&P 500. In other words, the US equity markets are currently undervalued by about 65%.

Obviously, there are many moving parts to this model. Interest rates could go higher than 5%, profits could fall or both could happen. Profits, for example, are now 12.9% of GDP, the highest in measured history (back to 1947) except for one quarter in 1950.

So what does our model say if profits revert to the historical mean of about 9.5% of GDP? Even in that scenario, and assuming a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury, equities are about 21% undervalued, with fair value at 1430 for the S&P 500 and 13,700 for the Dow.

The problem with this scenario is that it takes the worst of both worlds: a major decline in profits and a surge in interest rates. In the real world, a large decline in profits would normally be accompanied by a drop in bond yields. In other words, our model says the risk of investing in equities today is very low.

This is the opposite of what was happening back in 1999/2000. Back then, the market was over-valued and an ounce of gold traded for roughly 4 shares of Intel (INTC). Today it is trading for about 75 shares. Stocks look cheap and we think fears about the economy are overblown.

Yes, it would be good to trade the ups and downs of this market, but we don’t know anyone who can do that consistently. Rather, we focus on valuation, risk and reward. And right now, we believe the reward outweighs the risk by more than many people seem to believe. Fear will not disappear overnight, but the model says it is overblown and stocks are extremely attractive.

This information contains forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time and are the opinion of the individual strategist. Data comes from the following sources: Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Board, and Haver Analytics. Data is taken from sources generally believed to be reliable but no guarantee is given to its accuracy.

A majority of Americans may be under-prepared for their financial futures.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bsahaqkQAU

Taking control of your financial future may be even more important for women than it is for men. Here’s why women need to invest and save actively.

The earnings gap. Even today, men tend to earn more than women. A fresh 2008 survey of retirement savings trends conducted by Hewitt Associates, a global human resources consulting firm, found that the women worked they surveyed earned an average of $57,000 annually, compared to $84,000 for men.¹ The average male employee in the study therefore had the chance to defer greater amounts of salary into a company retirement plan, while the average salary of the surveyed female employees sometimes wasn’t high enough to trigger a company match.

Time out of the workplace. Men don’t usually put their careers aside to care for young children (or family members with special needs). Traditionally, women have been the ones who have taken time out of the work force for these responsibilities.

If a woman relies on a company retirement plan to accumulate retirement savings, this time out from the workplace can amount to a financial setback. A male employee may contribute to a 401(k) plan year after year for 20 or 30 years or more, and his contribution levels may increase as his salary increases. If a woman leaves the workplace for a few years (or more), her retirement nest egg still compounds, but the steady salary deferrals to a 401(k) plan cease. When she retires, she may have less of a nest egg than her male counterpart if she just relies on the company retirement plan as her primary retirement savings vehicle.

This is a compelling reason for women to build their own investment portfolios, in addition to participating in employer-sponsored retirement plans.

Divorce may mean that a woman has to “start over” financially. Many women find that a “fair and equal” settlement is not an equitable settlement. When the husband earns much more than the wife, all kinds of decisions ride on the stability of the husband’s salary – the neighborhood the couple or family can afford, what school the kids attend, and so on. When that big salary is gone, the woman faces a reduced lifestyle, and may dip into her savings to maintain financial equilibrium.

More importantly, she may not have the earnings potential her husband has. Things can get particularly tough when the wife is a key employee at a business or professional practice her husband started years before the marriage. After a divorce, the husband may retain the business and the bulk of the business assets, regardless of the integral role the wife played in growing and running the company. Will she want to work alongside her ex-husband? Probably not. So the stable job she had is a memory, and a career change and a move may be next.

This is why divorce financial planning is so important for many women. Women need to walk away from a divorce not just with an “equal” settlement, but with an investment portfolio and a financial plan personalized for their needs and goals, so that they can (re)build wealth on their own.

Women outlive men. On average, women live five years longer than men; in fact, the Labor Department estimates that almost 90% of women will outlive their husbands and spend a portion of their retirements managing their own finances.²

A woman who retires alone may face a very long retirement: if you leave work at 62, it may last 20 years or longer, with only about 30% of your income coming from Social Security. (That’s if Social Security is still around.)

The Hewitt Associates study estimated that women’s retirements will average 22 years, compared to 19 years for men. Factoring in projected increases in healthcare costs, it concluded that women need to save 2% more than men annually over 30 years to maintain their standard of living when they retire. If a woman earning $57,000 contributes 4% to her company retirement plan annually over 30 years instead of 2% (that’s $95 more a month), the study estimates that she’ll have an extra $81,000 at her retirement date.¹

Take control of your finances. The best antidote to worrying about the financial future is planning for it. Investing to build wealth apart from work – and working with a qualified financial advisor – is a great move. If you want to invest conservatively, you can find strong investment choices with the potential to outpace inflation. Whether your life is stable or changing, talk to a financial advisor today and learn about the moves you can make for a comfortable financial tomorrow.

Citations.

Now is a good time to examine what’s in your portfolio.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=D52wT6OXgyw

The stock market is unsettled … and perhaps its fluctuations are unsettling you. It’s a stressful time for the economy and Wall Street, and you may be concerned about your portfolio given what’s going on with oil prices, the real estate market, and rising unemployment figures. It may be a good time to review how your assets are invested.

Is your portfolio balanced? A balanced portfolio may help you ride out stock market turbulence. Stocks and mutual funds aren’t the only asset allocation choices you have, and you won’t be alone this winter if you decide to examine other investment options.

Fixed annuities and Treasuries become attractive to investors when the market turns volatile. Bonds tend to maintain their strength when stocks perform poorly; fixed annuities are simply contracts with insurance firms, not correlated to stock market performance (though certain types of annuities may enable you to take advantage of stock market gains while maintaining your principal). Fixed-income mutual funds, dividend income funds and bond funds also have their adherents.

Last but not least, you have cash, though cash holdings haven’t traditionally performed anywhere near the level of the stock markets.

Are you retired, or retiring? If you are, this is all the more reason to review and possibly even revise your portfolio. Frequently, people approach or enter retirement with portfolios that haven’t been reviewed in years. The asset allocation that seemed wise ten years ago may seem foolhardy today.

Often, people in their fifties and sixties feel they need to accumulate more money for retirement, and that feeling leads them to accept more risk in their portfolio than they should. In the absence of a salary, however, you’ll likely want consistent income and growth, and therein lies the appeal of a balanced investment approach designed to manage risk while encouraging an adequate return.

Why not take a look into your portfolio? Ask your financial advisor to assist you. You may find that you have a mix of investments that matches your risk tolerance. Or, your portfolio may need minor or major adjustments. The right balance may help you insulate your assets to a greater degree against financial ups and downs.

A popular estate planning feature.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iwqpWuRjJU

Have you heard of the “survivor option”? How about a “death put”? These rather bleak terms reference a very useful choice for beneficiaries who inherit certain kinds of corporate bonds. This option has become increasingly common.

What does a death put do? If a bondholder dies before a bond reaches maturity, a death put lets the beneficiary sell the bond back to the bond issuer at face value. If your children inherit a corporate bond from you, a death put may be a much better choice than keeping the bond until maturity or selling it in the secondary market (which could cause them to lose money).

Why has it become so attractive? Look at the current interest rate environment. If rates go up and beneficiaries decide to sell a corporate bond before maturity, they may have to take a loss. With a survivor option, that problem is off the table. If your heirs exercise the death put feature, they will be able to redeem the bond at par value even if it is trading at a steep discount.

Of course, this feature comes at a price. It is a “sweetener” – one of those things you pay for up front or indirectly via a lesser return rate on the security.

So the next logical question is, are there limits on survivor options? Most certainly. Most retail bond issuers will only take back a small amount of their bonds in a year (in the neighborhood of 1-2% of the original retail issue). There is also usually a per-estate limit ($200,000 par value per estate is a typical figure).¹

Often issuers require a minimum holding period before a survivor option can be used – a year from the original issue date is common. If a bondholder dies before those 365 days go by, his or her estate must hold the bond until the one-year window closes.²

One more detail to note: the beneficiaries of the bond have to implement the survivor option before they take possession of the bond. For the option to be used, the bonds must be held in the deceased bondholder’s account.²

Do your bonds have a survivor option? Do your loved ones know about that feature? You and your beneficiaries will want to acquaint yourself with the details. If you don’t own bonds with a survivor option, give me a call or shoot me an email to get more information.

Why emerging market equities have the world’s attention.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXlXhPNJ9ZE

Brazil. Russia. India. China. These four nations have some of the fastest-growing economies on earth and are becoming drivers in the world economy. In the coming decades, they may command as much attention as the U.S., Japan and other “heavy hitters” … or more.

The future aside, we know one thing about the BRIC nations and other emerging markets: collectively, stocks in these countries have outperformed U.S. stocks for the last 20 years.

During this past decade alone, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index brought a total return of 102.4% while the S&P 500 posted a total return of -10.0% (-24.1% before dividends). Across the 1990s, the S&P 500 produced a total return of 432.0% – pretty impressive. Yet the MSCI Emerging Markets index posted a total return of 2408.6% for that decade.^1,2

Now there is tremendous volatility … but also great potential. If U.S. stocks soar or fall, emerging markets really feel the effect. We’ve seen them recoil in the first quarter of 2010. Yet short-term slumps aside, there are compelling arguments for investing in emerging market equities as PART of a diversified portfolio. Not the entire portfolio!

Look at last year’s returns. In 2009, the benchmark index in Brazil (the Bovespa) gained 82.66%. Russia’s RTS gained 128.62%. India’s Sensex 30 advanced 81.03% and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 79.98%.³

Now let’s look at the last decade. The Dow and the S&P 500 underperformed in the 2000s compared to previous decades. How did benchmark indices in the BRIC nations do?

Are you sitting down? Brazil’s Bovespa gained 301% across the 2000s. India’s stock market gained 249%. China’s Shanghai Composite was the laggard, only rising 72% over that stretch. Russia’s RTSI gained 863% in the past decade.³

So is it B-R-I-C, or B-R-I-M-C-K? Some economists would modify BRIC to BRIMCK, arguing that Mexico and South Korea belong in this collective powerhouse. The key market indices in Mexico and South Korea respectively advanced 44.87% and 49.65% last year.³ Or course I would argue that the sever instability of the Mexican government, which has a dramatic impact on their local market, is enough to keep it out of any serious investor’s portfolio.

So is this the (corporate) opportunity of a lifetime? Wall Street bulls see wisdom in giving more and more weight to the BRICs in portfolios. They draw a line between the impressive, sustained growth of these nations to higher returns and rising demand for capital. They look at these nations and see a rapidly growing middle class and upper middle class and a corresponding rise in spending … translating to a momentous opportunity for global companies who leap into the right place at the right time … translating to great corporate profits down the line.

Of course, this vision assumes that the BRIC nations will a) keep economic policies in place that drive growth, b) avoid political and social upheaval, and c) escape the worst of global economic crises. Remember, in my opinion, what hurts our economy will hurt them 10x as hard when it reaches there.

So is there a new alliance? A decade ago, “BRIC” was simply Wall Street slang – a term coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill. Today, the BRIC nations appear to be heading toward some form of coalition. In recognition of their power, BRIC leaders have scheduled annual economic summits – the first one was in Russia in 2009, the 2010 summit is in Brazil. The presidents and prime ministers of these countries entered into dialogue to determine how their economies can work together and maintain their fantastic growth.

In sum, the BRIC nations are responsible for about 15% of global GDP, and about 40% of the gold and hard currency reserves on earth are in their possession.⁴

So, does the BRIC demand your attention? Some financial consultants think that any well-diversified portfolio should have a toe (or a foot or a leg) in emerging markets – the gains of recent years are simply too spectacular to ignore. Others counter with the argument that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and cite the remarkable volatility that can affect the stock markets of these nations.

If you are interested in learning more, give me a call or shoot me an email and I’ll be glad to sit down and see what makes sense for you.

Citations.

¹ realclearmarkets.com/blog/Omnivest_1-4-10.pdf [1/4/10]

² cnbc.com/id/34645043 [12/31/09]

³ cnbc.com/id/34643111 [12/31/09]

⁴ nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/europe/17bric.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print [6/17/09]

A special category of securities worth exploring.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HiDnbajxSY

Before I explain preferred stocks, let me explain dividends. Dividends are a part of the earnings that a corporation has that are paid out to it’s shareholders – usually on a quarterly basis. Let me give an example. Let’s say you own 1 share of xyz company, and that company is paying out a $5 annual dividend. Every quarter you would receive $1.25 for every share that you owned.

Preferred stocks are stocks that tend to pay sizable dividends. Institutional and individual investors buy preferred stocks because they offer fixed dividends – in fact, dividend yields are typically greater than those of common stocks.¹

Preferred stocks are occasionally called hybrid securities, because they have characteristics of debt instruments (meaning bonds) as well as equities. Let’s review some of their features and pitfalls.

A big feature is the priority of dividend payouts. As the “preferred” adjective implies, these shares are a step above common stock. If you own preferred stock in a company, you will get your dividend first; all the common shareholders will get theirs second if there is money left over. You also have preference if a corporation declares bankruptcy or liquidates and sells assets. In that instance, debt holders are paid first, then the preferred shares, and finally the common shares.

Dividend determination. Dividends paid out on preferreds are akin to coupon payments on a bond. A preferred stock obviously doesn’t have a maturity date like a bond, but it does have a par value, which is used to figure out the payouts. (A good stock research website can help you find the par value and preferred dividend rate of return.) You determine the preferred dividend by multiplying the preferred dividend rate percentage by the par value.

Accumulating dividends. Sometimes a corporation can’t pay dividends to preferred shareholders. If that’s the case, the company will often let the preferred stock dividends accumulate until cash flow improves.

The five kinds of preferreds. Most preferred stocks are cumulative – that is, any missed dividend payments accumulate for an eventual payout. So if a company can’t afford to make the dividend payment for 2 years and then it has the money to do so, the preferred stocks must be paid retro for the missed 2 years while the common stock gets no such consideration. Most preferreds are also callable – that is, the stock issuer has a chance to call (redeem) the shares at par value. Yields on preferred shares sometimes include premiums in recognition of this risk.

Some preferred stocks are convertible, with embedded options allowing you the chance to exchange preferred shares for common ones. (Sometimes a provision is allowed that gives the issuer (or company) the chance to call for the conversion.)

Some preferreds are participating – when a company does well, the dividends from these shares may be greater than the published yield. Finally, when a corporation issues multiple rounds of preferred stock, there may be preference-preferred shares; if you own shares from the first issuance, your preferreds take priority over preferreds issued later.

Now let’s talk about some possible pitfalls. So what is the downside of owning a preferred stock? Well, they do present potential and actual disadvantages. When a market sector heats up and common shares take off, preferreds often lag behind. Also, interest rate hikes can reduce the value of preferred shares. Additionally, you have no voting rights as a preferred shareholder.

Let’s address ratings. There is no “official” rating system for preferred stocks; however, the big credit agencies that rate bonds rate preferreds as well. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s do, and when they downgrade, it can hit a preferred stock hard. Preferred stocks rated beneath BBB- at Standard & Poor’s or beneath Baa3 by Moody’s are considered junk preferreds.² If you have to go outside of S&P or Moody’s to find a preferred stock’s rating, that’s a red flag – it might mean that it couldn’t get a decent rating from S&P or Moody’s.

A preferred stock investor would do well to research a company’s financial ratios and cash flow, and its interest coverage ratio (higher is usually better).

Before you decide, consider the variables. Preferred stocks have looked attractive to retirees and others who are just seeking consistent dividends and quite happy with that. Rather than explore them alone, you should see a financial consultant who can help you thoroughly understand your options in this area and compare them to other choices you may have.

Investment advice is offered through Pete Mitchell, Inc. a registered investment advisor.com

Citations.

¹ mercurynews.com/columns/ci_14249188 [1/23/10]

² kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2003/10/preferred.html [10/03]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice.

What it is, how it works, and how to get started.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H_zzmqy3DA

If you are confused or unsure, you’re not alone. It’s amazing to me how many adults, many of them college grads, know practically nothing about the stock market. Many schools simply don’t offer or don’t require the classes that cover it. If you’ve been holding off on investing because you simply didn’t know enough about it … that’s probably wise. But rather than delay any longer, here’s some information to get you started:

The nuts and bolts. Basically, if you own a stock, you own a part of a company. You’ve invested in that company. If the company does well, the value of your stock tends to rises. If the company does poorly, the value of your stock tends to fall. The value of the stock, or the share price is determined by supply and demand. When more people want that stock, perhaps because it is doing well, the price goes up. When less people want that stock because they see less value in the company, the price goes down. That is the stock market in the simplest terms.

When you hear “The market.” Think of it like a flea market. Rather than travel all over town, a flea market offers you a central location where buyers and sellers can meet up. The stock market isn’t all that different. Stock markets are simply gathering places for stock owners to buy and sell stock securities.

Heard the term exchanging or trading? These are terms you hear frequently in regard to stocks, but they can be misleading … and perhaps this is one reason there is so much confusion. You’re not actually exchanging stocks, and you’re not really trading stocks. You are buying them or selling them.

How much does it cost to buy or sell a stock? Actually, there are two costs to consider … 1) The cost of the stock, and 2) the cost of the “trade”. The price of the stock varies hugely from company to company and can change from moment to moment, so that’s a question I can’t answer for you. But there’s also a fee to buy or sell a stock (or “share”). The amount of the fee depends on which stock brokerage you use. Generally these fees can range from under $10 to $20 or even up to $100 per “trade”. Keep in mind you will pay a fee when you buy your stock, and again when you sell it.

What is a brokerage? A brokerage is a conduit for the buying and selling of stocks. For example, let’s say you want to buy a stock that’s listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Well, that stock is bought and sold on the floor of the NYSE. So, unless you are authorized to trade at the exchange and want to travel to New York, you instead enlist the services of a broker to take care of your buying and selling for you. Brokerages pay fees to become members of a stock exchange and access the “floor” of an exchange for trading. They then buy and sell stocks on behalf of their clients.

So, how do you get started? There are all kinds of ways to get started and a myriad of brokerage choices, including discretionary dealing (where the brokerage chooses stocks on your behalf), advisory dealing (where the brokerage gives you advice, but leaves the decisions up to you), and execution-only brokerages (where you will be entirely self-directed). Most brokerages have a minimum deposit you must make to get started, so you’ll want to look into that as well. If you’re serious about investing and want to do it frequently and avidly, read up on the markets and consider taking a class to educate yourself.

What is Pete Mitchell, Inc.? My company is what is called a Registered Investment Advisor, or an RIA for short, not a stock broker. Now me personally, Pete Mitchell, I am an Investment Advisor Representative of my company. Even though there are many, the principle difference between an RIA only firm and a brokerage firm (also called a Broker/Dealer) is that we do not earn a commission or charge a fee to make trades for you. We charge a fee for our investment advice.

That may not make any sense to you so let me explain.

Stock brokers typically earn a commission when they sell you a product. After you are in the product, little if any, additional commissions are paid to the broker.  This means that the stock broker does not have the same financial interest that you may have when it comes to investing.

My type of firm charges a fee based on the assets we manage.  This is a percentage of the account (typically 1-1.5%). We get paid 25% of this fee every quarter. So if your account goes down because of either what is going on in the market or some other reason, our paycheck goes down as well. So here is my question for you. Who is more likely to be concerned with what is happening with your account? The guy who got paid up front or the guy who loses when you lose and wins when you win?

It is a rhetorical question.  I think you know the answer to that.

In summary. Before you make any big decisions, though, think about enlisting the assistance of a qualified financial professional who can give you insight and perspective on the financial markets.

Investment advice is offered through Pete Mitchell, Inc. a registered investment advisor in the state of California.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice.